The New York Knicks are projected to draft Virgnia guard Ryan Dunn with the No. 25 pick in the first round, according to the latest Aggregated 2024 NBA Mock Draft published by HoopsHype on May 28. Dunn would follow Kel’el Ware, who the Knicks are projected to select with the No. 24 pick.
Dunn, a sophomore guard from Virginia, has emerged as a mid-first-caliber prospect for the upcoming NBA draft most notably because of his defensive prowess.
Standing 6-foot-8 with a wingspan approaching 7-foot, Dunn was widely regarded as the best perimeter defender in college last season and now also the best defensive weapon in this draft class.
He’s coming off averaging 3.6 stocks (steals and blocks) per game, to go with 8.1 PPG, 6.9 RPG, and 0.8 APG. Dunn’s shooting, however, finished at a paltry slash-line reading 54.8 from the field, 20 from three, and 53.2 from the free-throw line.
“You’re bringing in a defensive monster who can guard right away, learn your schemes, and be able to hold my own,” Dunn told HoopsHype.
The New York Knicks could consider drafting Dunn depending on how they plan to craft their offseason, and also due to OG Anunoby’s injury woes preventing him from logging full 82-game seasons. Dunn compares positively to OG, which would make for a nice plug-and-play replacement in case New York lands him at the end of the first round.
“There are a lot of players I watch, like Paul George and Herb Jones, too defensively,” Dunn said. “I think the closest I probably have is OG Anunoby right now, with him in the playoffs with his size and strength defensively.”
Dunn’s draft range is projected between 15 to 30, though some NBA executives speaking to HoopsHype believe he might not make it into the mid-20s, getting snatched earlier.
Dunn’s strengths include his size, elite defensive skills, and versatility in guarding multiple positions. He generates steals and blocks at a high rate, excels as a weakside rim protector, and is active in transition, always hustling for loose balls and contributing on the offensive glass.
Now, get ready for the bad: he doesn’t seem to know what “offensive basketball” means. Dunn has a limited offensive skill set, to say the least. He struggles with shooting, driving, passing, and screening, per multiple scouting reports such as the one over HoopsHype.
He boasts an inconsistent jumper with low shooting efficiency from beyond the arc and the foul line (check those percentages again and let them marinate for a minute). He is also seen as a physically weak player expected to go through some growing pains when he jumps to the NBA and has to battle men, not kids. He needs to bulk up and add a certain amount of muscle if he wants to handle and guard bigger players, and most definitely he has to improve his vision, passing, and creativity.
Simply put, he’s an off-the-ball guard without the shooting capabilities. Not the best thing you can think of if you want someone to drop buckets in bunches, which should give the Knicks (and everybody else) some pause.
“Dunn is probably going to be close to a lottery pick or right outside of it,” an NBA executive told HoopsHype. “I’d say he’s the most versatile defender in college basketball. The offense is a little bit behind, the shooting most notably. He’s got to be able to at least make corner threes when he gets into the league. I think it’s a touch issue. He sees the game. He’s just sped up a lot. He plays with a lot of energy and doesn’t always know how to suppress it at times. Offensively, he cuts, screens, and dives well. He can catch lobs. He can pass a little bit, especially in a short roll situation or if he’s catching it on the run and making the right read. He’s got to develop more on-the-ball stuff and his shooting.”
Another NBA executive thinks Dunn “will go in around the 20 range,” adding, “He’s a defensive-minded player. He’s a little difficult to project offensively. He needs to look at the basket more and increase his range and confidence. Defensively, he’s got that part of the court figured out.”
Dunn’s defensive abilities are undisputable and make him an attractive, valuable prospect for teams in clear contention needing a very particular type of player. That said, his offensive limitations may impact his draft position and tank his stock a bit.
With the Knicks expected to ink OG to a multi-year extension, drafting Dunn would simply come down to a matter of preference. Would New York decide to draft a low-level copy of OG to have a replacement in place for whatever happens to Anunoby throughout the season… or would they rather fill another need elsewhere across the roster?
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