SAINTS may be in the midst of a nine-game unbeaten run, but they must buck a worrying trend to reach the Championship play-offs.
With the exception of a last-gasp 2-1 win over Wrexham on the opening weekend, Saints have failed to beat any of the current top eight clubs.
Even expanding the scope to 11th-placed Bristol City reveals just one additional win – the recent 1-0 victory over Watford at St Mary’s.
Southampton’s record against the top half is a major reason they sit four points adrift of the play-off places after 35 matches.
A rather favourable set of fixtures has seen Tonda Eckert’s charges earn 20 points from their last eight games – a total beaten by no other team in the division.
That surge has reignited hopes of a Premier League return, but they will need to dig deeper to close the gap on sixth-placed Wrexham.
Thankfully, six of their 11 remaining games are against teams currently sitting in the top half of the Championship table.
Saints have only outperformed the Welsh club across an 11-game stretch on just four occasions this season, most recently between Matchweeks 14 and 24.
That stretch of games includes the initial run of form under Tonda Eckert, when they won six out of seven matches, losing to third-place Millwall.
The best way to gain ground on the teams around you is by beating them, and Saints will get the chance to do that against Wrexham and eighth-place Derby.
“We have to play a lot of the teams around us. They will be tough games, but that’s the situation we have put ourselves in,” Ryan Manning told the Daily Echo.
Momentum is everything at this stage of the season. If players turn up believing they can come out on top, that is half the battle won already.
Matchdays at St Mary’s feel much better than they did during the festive period, and away fans are being rewarded for their loyal support.
But there is a fine line between thinking you can win and assuming you will win. Jack Stephens has already warned his teammates that too much confidence will cost them.
“I’ve told the lads, we cannot just expect to turn up in the Championship and win games. That went out of the window in the first half at Leicester. It’s exactly what we did,” he said.
“I’ve told the lads that we need to back performances up, back up the results. If we are going to make something of this season, we need to keep turning up every day.”
Stats suggest Saints have the second toughest run-in in the Championship. For those who believe in such metrics, there is comfort in knowing that Wrexham’s is harder.
The average points earned per game by Southampton’s final 11 opponents is 1.52. Wrexham’s is a smidge higher at 1.54.
Regardless of how tough the next 11 league games will be, Saints know that there is no room to slip up. Maintain their current form, and they have a shot.
But fail to beat top-half clubs Coventry, Ipswich, Wrexham, Derby, Bristol City and Preston, and Saints may as well start planning for another year in the second tier.
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