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KENTUCKY BASKETBALL SHOCKER: ANALYTICS

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October 1, 2026
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Big Blue Nation is getting closer to seeing Mark Pope’s new-look Kentucky Wildcats in meaningful action, but one preseason debate is already creating plenty of intrigue.

Who is actually Kentucky’s best five-player combination?

On paper, there are several obvious candidates.

On the court, however, things could look very different.

Analytics from EvanMiya have produced a particularly interesting projected five for Kentucky: Zoom Diallo, Kam Williams, Milan Momcilovic, Ousmane N’Diaye and Malachi Moreno.

Notice the name missing.

Alex Wilkins.

That omission is striking because Wilkins arrives in Lexington after an outstanding freshman season at Furman, where he averaged 17.8 points and 4.7 assists per game and started all 35 games he played.

So how can a player with that résumé be absent from an analytics-based “best five”?

The answer reveals just how fascinating Kentucky’s roster could become.

THE FIVE-MAN LINEUP THAT HAS KENTUCKY FANS TALKING

The EvanMiya projection features:

  • Zoom Diallo
  • Kam Williams
  • Milan Momcilovic
  • Ousmane N’Diaye
  • Malachi Moreno

It is a lineup built around size, shooting, playmaking and positional versatility.

Momcilovic gives Kentucky an elite perimeter shooting threat. Williams adds another dangerous outside shooter. Diallo provides another ball-handler, while N’Diaye and Moreno give the Wildcats considerable size.

That combination makes sense from a lineup-construction perspective.

But it also creates the obvious question:

Where is Alex Wilkins?

WILKINS HAS ALREADY PROVEN HE CAN PRODUCE

The case for Wilkins isn’t based simply on preseason hype.

He has already demonstrated that he can carry a significant offensive workload.

At Furman last season, Wilkins averaged 17.8 points and 4.7 assists per game, while shooting 45.8% from the field and 32.1% from three-point range. He also shot 83.5% at the free-throw line.

He started every game he played.

More importantly, Wilkins became particularly productive when the stakes increased.

During Furman’s Southern Conference Tournament championship run, he averaged 21.7 points per game across three victories and was named the tournament’s Most Outstanding Player. He scored a career-high 34 points against UNC Greensboro in the semifinal.

That is not the résumé of a player who should be casually dismissed from Kentucky’s rotation.

THEN CAME THE NCAA TOURNAMENT

Wilkins also received an opportunity to perform against one of the biggest programs in college basketball.

Furman faced UConn in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament, and Wilkins finished with 21 points, including four three-pointers, as the Paladins ultimately lost 82-71.

That performance helped introduce him to a much wider national audience.

It also demonstrated why Kentucky pursued him in the transfer portal.

Kentucky officially added Wilkins to its 2026-27 roster in April after his breakout season at Furman.

The Wildcats weren’t bringing in an untested freshman.

They were acquiring a young guard who had already been the focal point of a successful college offense.

BUT ANALYTICS ARE NOT THE SAME AS A STARTING LINEUP

This is the most important distinction in the entire conversation.

Seeing Wilkins absent from EvanMiya’s projected best five does not necessarily mean the analytics predict that he will sit on Kentucky’s bench.

It also does not mean Kentucky’s coaching staff has decided that he isn’t a starter.

The model is attempting to identify a highly effective five-player combination based on its analytical measurements.

That is different from predicting which five players Mark Pope will write onto the lineup card.

And Kentucky has plenty of evidence that the distinction matters.

Other preseason projections have included Wilkins among the expected starters. One June projection, for example, listed a five-man group of Diallo, Wilkins, Williams, Momcilovic and Moreno.

That contrast is exactly what makes the debate so interesting.

WHY WILKINS COULD STILL BECOME A MAJOR PIECE

There is a strong argument that Wilkins could eventually force his way into Kentucky’s most important lineups.

His greatest asset is his ability to create.

At Furman, the ball was frequently in his hands. He wasn’t simply waiting in the corner for an open three.

He created shots.

He attacked defenders.

He found teammates.

And he was comfortable taking responsibility when the game became difficult.

Kentucky will ask him to adjust to a significantly higher level of competition, but that doesn’t erase what he accomplished.

Instead, it creates one of the biggest developmental questions of the season.

How quickly can Wilkins translate his production from the Southern Conference to the SEC?

THE SEC WILL BE A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT TEST

This is where the analytics may have a legitimate point.

The SEC is a significant step up from the Southern Conference.

Wilkins will encounter bigger, stronger and more athletic defenders on a regular basis.

He will also have less control of the offense.

At Furman, he was one of the primary engines of everything the Paladins did offensively.

At Kentucky, he joins a roster with multiple players capable of creating their own offense.

That could actually make his job easier in some ways—but it will require him to become comfortable playing without the ball.

Recent analysis of Wilkins’ Kentucky fit has emphasized exactly that transition. At Furman, he carried heavy ball-screen responsibilities; at Kentucky, his effectiveness as an off-ball player and catch-and-shoot threat could become increasingly important.

That adjustment could ultimately determine where he fits in Pope’s best combinations.

MOMCILOVIC CHANGES THE EQUATION

One player who could dramatically alter Kentucky’s lineup decisions is Milan Momcilovic.

Momcilovic arrives after shooting an extraordinary 48.7% from three-point range for Iowa State during the 2025-26 season.

That means Kentucky already has a player capable of stretching defenses at an elite level.

Add Kam Williams, another dangerous shooter, and the Wildcats have a very different offensive structure from the one they had previously.

Suddenly, Pope doesn’t necessarily need every perimeter player to be a primary creator.

He can surround Diallo or Wilkins with shooters.

That creates opportunities for both guards.

DIALLO AND WILKINS COULD FORM AN INTRIGUING BACKCOURT

One of the most fascinating possibilities is using Diallo and Wilkins together.

Both players can handle the ball.

Both can create opportunities.

And neither necessarily needs to dominate every possession.

Wilkins himself has spoken positively about playing alongside Diallo, Momcilovic and Moreno and about the possibilities within Pope’s offensive system.

That suggests Kentucky could have multiple players capable of initiating offense.

Instead of relying on one traditional point guard to create everything, Pope could allow different players to take turns attacking.

That could make Kentucky considerably harder to defend.

WHY KAM WILLIAMS IS SO IMPORTANT TO THIS DISCUSSION

Williams is another reason Wilkins’ omission from the analytical lineup isn’t necessarily as dramatic as it first appears.

Williams provides Kentucky with size and perimeter shooting.

If he proves capable defensively while consistently knocking down outside shots, he gives Pope a lineup piece that can complement both Diallo and Momcilovic.

The question then becomes less about who is the better individual player and more about which five players fit together most effectively.

That is an entirely different question.

And basketball is full of examples where the five best individual players aren’t necessarily the five best players to put on the floor together.

MORENO COULD BE THE ANCHOR

Malachi Moreno gives Kentucky another important component.

The 7-foot center provides interior size, rebounding potential and rim protection.

His presence allows Pope to surround him with perimeter players without sacrificing as much size in the middle.

A lineup featuring Moreno behind Diallo, Williams and Momcilovic has obvious spacing potential.

Add N’Diaye, and Kentucky can become even bigger.

That’s likely one reason the analytical lineup is so intriguing.

It creates a combination with several different ways to attack an opponent.

N’DIAYE GIVES POPE ANOTHER OPTION

N’Diaye is perhaps the biggest wildcard in the analytical lineup.

His size allows Kentucky to play a very large group without completely sacrificing perimeter skill.

A lineup with Diallo, Williams, Momcilovic, N’Diaye and Moreno would give Kentucky substantial size at almost every position.

The trade-off is obvious.

The bigger the lineup becomes, the more important athleticism and defensive mobility will be.

Pope will have to determine whether the additional size produces enough advantages to justify any potential loss in speed.

That is precisely the type of decision that cannot be completely answered by preseason projections.

THE REAL QUESTION MAY NOT BE WHO STARTS

Kentucky fans often focus heavily on starting lineups.

But there is another question that could matter even more:

Who finishes?

A player doesn’t have to start to become one of the most important players on a team.

Pope could experiment with different combinations throughout games and then settle on whichever group performs best in specific situations.

Maybe Wilkins starts.

Maybe Williams starts.

Maybe N’Diaye starts.

Maybe Pope changes his approach depending on the opponent.

That flexibility could become one of Kentucky’s biggest strengths.

WILKINS HAS ALREADY HEARD THE DOUBTS

Interestingly, Wilkins doesn’t appear to be approaching his move to Kentucky with a lack of confidence.

In July, he discussed comparisons to NBA stars and explained that he sees elements of players such as Darius Garland and Kyrie Irving in his own game. He also emphasized that his performance on the court would ultimately determine what people think of him.

That confidence could be valuable.

Because the SEC will test him in ways Furman couldn’t.

There will be nights when he struggles.

There will be physical defenders.

There will be mistakes.

There will be games when his shot isn’t falling.

The key will be how he responds.

THIS COULD BECOME ONE OF KENTUCKY’S BIGGEST STORYLINES

If Wilkins quickly adjusts to the SEC, the analytical projection could look very different by the middle of the season.

That’s the fascinating part.

Preseason analytics represent a snapshot.

They are not a final verdict.

Players improve.

Lineups develop chemistry.

Injuries happen.

Roles change.

And coaches discover things during actual games that no preseason model can completely anticipate.

Wilkins therefore has an opportunity to make this entire discussion irrelevant.

If he becomes one of Kentucky’s most productive players, Pope will have to find a way to keep him on the floor.

BIG BLUE NATION WILL SOON GET THE ANSWER

For now, EvanMiya’s projected combination has created a fascinating debate.

Diallo. Williams. Momcilovic. N’Diaye. Moreno.

That’s the analytical five.

But Wilkins’ résumé makes his omission impossible to ignore.

He averaged 17.8 points and 4.7 assists as a freshman, led Furman to a conference tournament championship, earned tournament MVP honors and scored 21 points against UConn in March Madness.

Now he gets an entirely different opportunity in Lexington.

He doesn’t need to prove that he can produce against mid-major competition anymore.

He needs to show that his game translates to the SEC.

And if it does, Mark Pope could have a very enjoyable problem on his hands.

Because the question won’t be whether Alex Wilkins belongs on the floor.

It will be figuring out which combination of Kentucky’s many talented pieces gives the Wildcats their most dangerous five-man unit.

THE ANALYTICS ARE ONLY THE BEGINNING

The most important takeaway for Kentucky fans is simple: don’t confuse an analytical projection with a final lineup decision.

The model has identified one combination it believes could be especially effective.

Other analysts have projected Wilkins as a starter.

Kentucky’s coaching staff has yet to let the actual games settle the argument.

And that’s exactly how it should be.

Soon, the Wildcats will have to replace preseason speculation with real possessions, real defensive assignments, real shooting percentages and real SEC competition.

Until then, Alex Wilkins’ absence from one projected five isn’t a rejection of his talent.

It is a reminder of just how many options Mark Pope has.

And if Wilkins makes the leap Kentucky expects, Big Blue Nation may look back at this preseason debate and realize that the most interesting part wasn’t who the analytics left out.

It was how many legitimate answers Kentucky had in the first place.

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