Like it or not, but State of Origin is not too far away.
With Origin 1 scheduled for the 27th of May, the Blue/Maroon shadow is starting to be cast.
There is still plenty of time for Origin jumpers to be won and lost, but today we’re here to look at work done thus far.
Heading into the season, I put together two predicted Origin sides, which I update every few weeks. Safe to say they look very different now than they did back in February.
We are going to look at five players who have seen their Origin stocks rise. Either they performances or circumstances (sometimes both) have seen their likelihood of Origin selection rise.
Of course with the good, also comes the bad, as we look at five players who have seen their stocks fall.
Let us know in the comments who you believe is now closer, or further away, from an Origin debut than a month ago.
Here are five players whose Origin stocks have risen, and five who have seen their Origin stocks fall:
Stocks Rising
Blayke Brailey
Blayke Brailey has emerged as the best hooker in the competition not named Harry Grant.
Last year the Blues really lacked creativity in the number nine role as Reece Robson struggled to get anything going in attack.
Brailey’s seven try assists in six games and 97% tackle percentage put him far above his competitors right now.
He was always a favourite to unseed Robson but many had him being Wayde Egan and Apisai Koroisau pre-season. That can no longer be stated.
Haumole Olakau’atu
I put an early NSW Origin 19 together about three weeks ago and the Manly star wasn’t on the list.
He, and the Sea Eagles, have been completely re-energised since the swap at coach, and now the Blues simply have to find a spot for the 2024 rep.
I have two second rowers in front of him but I can’t see a world in which Olakau’atu isn’t in the 19. Especially now that Liam Martin is injured.
His past two weeks have seen him run for 272 and 182 metres. He’s coming into supreme form at the right time.
Jackson Ford
This is the easiest entry on the list as in the pre-season, you couldn’t buy stocks in Jackson Ford’s Origin chances. They were almost zero.
Now though, on the back of a Dally M Medal leading opening six weeks, the Warriors star would consider himself extremely unlucky to miss out.
Through six rounds he’s averaging almost 175 metres, tackling at 94%, has three tries and four line breaks. He’s perfect for the new, faster game.
Many don’t have him in the 19 right now but they probably should!
Jacob Preston
Liam Martin’s injury and Angus Crichton’s form struggles play a part in why Preston’s name appears here, but it’s only a tiny part.
I believe Preson should have played for the Kangaroos in the Ashes tour. He deserved it!
He should debut for the Blues this year based on his incredible start to the season. I’d start him. I don’t see many arguments against it.
The Blues have to find a spot for some new blood and right now Preston is absolutely demanding selection!
Campbell Graham
With Zac Lomax moving onto the other code, a wing spot is very much open for the Blues.
Mark Nawaqanitawase is probably favourite, while Jacob Kiraz has long been expected to play Origin footy. Tom Trbojevic has played plenty of wing at rep level.
That said, Campbell Graham has done his chances no harm at all in the opening month and a bit. Three tries and 150 run metres per game, in his four appearances this year make for positive reading.
Pre-season I wouldn’t have had Graham’s name in the mix. Right now I absolutely do.
Stocks Falling
Addin Fonua-Blake
If you had asked me, pre-season, who was the biggest benefactor of the eligibility changes, it’s 110% Addin Fonua-Blake.
I legit felt NSW pushed to support the change to pair the Sharks monster with Payne Haas to create the game’s premier starting prop duo.
You’re going to have to look elsewhere for someone to say something negative about the Sharks best player in 2025, but he’s hardly demanding selection.
He hasn’t been bad, just very quiet by his own massive standards. I don’t think you can argue against his stocks being way down.
Briton Nikora
Briton Nikora was probably the other one who entered the 2026 season expecting an Origin jumper, for QLD, at the first chance now that he’s eligible.
Now, not only is he not the automatic selection once expected, but he’s lost his starting spot at the Sharks also.
Nikora’s abilities probably mean he’ll snag a spot on the expanded bench come Origin One, but six weeks ago he was a near certainty in the back row.
David Fifita’s injury opens the door, slightly, but another you’d have to go a long way to find an argument against his stocks having fallen.
Liam Martin
An MCL injury looks to have all but ended Liam Martin’s hopes of running out come Origin One.
Hudson Young and Jacob Preston are both demanding selection, and Martin’s spot would likely have been under pressure regardless.
If the injury lay off is closer to worst case scenario (likely eight weeks) it could see him miss selection for Origin Two also.
Right now it looks a long shot that the Penrith back rower will play any part in the interstate series, which could be over (results wise) before he gets a crack.
Gehamat Shibasaki
2025’s surprise packet and shock selection for both Queensland and Australia now looks to be a tough slog to retain his rep honours.
He recently lost his spot in the Broncos backline and only returned via a mid-match injury.
With Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Robert Toia the undoubted first and second choice options for the Origin centre spots, Shibasaki’s chances of playing this year don’t look great.
He probably doesn’t have the versatility to jump the likes of Kalyn Ponga for a bench spot, even with the extended bench.
Trent Loiero
The Storm lock has his work cut out to retain his Origin jersey from last year.
Pat Carrigan will likely return to the 13 jumper and I’d even argue the newly eligible Jason Taumalolo is ahead of him in the pecking order right now.
The Storm have started the 2026 season very poorly and Loiero has hardly stood out as one of those bucking the trend.
He’s an Origin quality player but right now I don’t have him in the 19. Heading into the season, he was absolutely there.
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