After a breakthought season in strikeouts (186), Zach Eflin missed four starts in 2024 while finishing 52 Ks lower than his career high. He was easier to hit, and a few more home runs left the yard.
SP – Zach Eflin, BAL (ADP – 183.0)
The Rays unlocked the keys to Eflin’s arm in 2023. He led the American League in wins (16) while setting career bests in innings (177.2), batting average against (.235), ERA (3.50), WHIP (1.024), and strikeouts (186). Eflin allowed three runs or fewer in 24 of his 31 starts while pitching at least six innings in 19 games. His arm progressed against lefties (.210 with nine home runs over 328 at-bats).
Zach Eflin, Filthy Curveballs. 😷 pic.twitter.com/2mWA3vsQCy
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 3, 2024
Last year, he was up and down over his first 10 starts (one run or fewer in four games and four runs or more in four contests) despite walking only four batters over 59.0 innings. A back issue pushed him to the sidelines for 17 days in late May. Eflin pitched about the same over nine starts (4.06 ERA, 1.157 WHIP, and six home runs over 51.0 innings with 43 strikeouts). After a trade to Baltimore, he went 5-2 with a 2.60 ERA, 1.121 WHIP, and 47 strikeouts over 55.1 innings). Eflin landed on the injured list in mid-August (16 days) with a right shoulder injury.
Right-handed batters (.281 BAA) gave him trouble, along with pitching on the road (4.24 ERA). His average fastball (92.6) had further regression. Eflin lost his curveball (.295 BAA – .189 in 2023) while seeing his cutter (.217 BAA – .297 BAA in 2023) have a similar flip in value but in a positive way. His low-volume changeup (.204 BAA) and four-seamer (.241 BAA) were assets. He threw a favorable slider (.232 BAA) with a weaker sinker (.286 BAA), especially to righties (.321 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook: The lack of luster in Eflin this season appears to be twofold. First, he had a sharp decline in his strikeout rate (7.3 – 19.6% – 9.4/26.5 in 2023). Second, the switch in home ballparks, paired with Baltimore moving their left field fence in, invites more home runs and disaster innings. His walk rate (1.3) remains elite, helping his value in WHIP.
He tends to allow more hits than innings pitches, and Eflin won’t be better this year unless his arm rebounds against righties. From start to start over the past two seasons, his good days outweigh his off nights by a wide margin. Consider him a steady option while hoping Eflin regains some strikeout ability this year.
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