Houston Rockets’ Most Likely Picks At No. 3 Revealed

The Houston Rockets faced little dilemma last year when deciding their path with the No. 4 pick in the 2023 NBA draft. Houston’s latest top-five pick brings a far heavier set of complications.

Houston, still mired in the depths of its rebuild after a dismal 60-loss 2022-23 campaign, added guard Amen Thompson to its stockpile of young talent last June, then reaped the rewards as Thompson helped fuel a rise toward playoff contention. Another youngster joining the fold this month is no guarantee.

Rockets general manager Rafael Stone could very well look to accelerate Houston’s rebuild by using the No. 3 pick in a package for a veteran player, with Brooklyn Nets wing Mikal Bridges standing as a long-rumored target. Stone could also play the long game, moving down from No. 3 (or trading the pick completely) in order to receive future draft capital. Stone and the Rockets might go star hunting this summer. If they don’t, receiving more ammunition for the next superstar pursuit could be a worthwhile move.

We’ll assess the likelihood and prudence of a potential move from No. 3 at a later date. For now, let’s narrow our focus to the prospects likely in play for the Rockets if they stick and pick. Does the 2024 NBA draft lack a guaranteed All-Star? Perhaps. But the scramble atop the board could ultimately benefit the Rockets. Expect Stone to keep his focus on these five prospects in particular with just two weeks until draft night at Barclays Center in Brooklyn.

I’d still consider this pair of NCAA standouts the most likely options for Stone and Co. at No. 3, even as Frenchmen Alex Sarr and Zaccharie Riashcer (more on them later) fall from their prior perch as near-guarantees to be the first two picks. The Atlanta Hawks seem increasingly infatuated with Clingan, though for now, Sarr remains the favorite at No. 1 across both mock drafts and betting markets. It’s not hard to see the intrigue with the former UConn big man.

Clingan is hailed as a future All-Defense center, a player who should both immediately contribute as a young player—think Utah Jazz center Walker Kessler—and potentially rise to a Rudy Gobert-level defender. Clingan also sports a burgeoning shooting stroke beyond the arc, though he’ll likely be a passable pick-and-pop option closer to 2026 than 2024. Still, the defensive upside with Clingan far surpasses anyone in his class. The combination of plug-and-play ability and potential could make him the No. 1 pick, and a legitimate consideration for Houston at No. 3.

I understand the possible indignation from Houston fans should the Rockets use the No. 3 pick on Clingan, a player at the same position as franchise anchor Alperen Şengün. And while the pair sharing the floor for significant time may be a stretch, there needs to be some more imaginative thinking than simply sketching out a starting lineup. Stone consistently mentions the wish to build a championship-level roster, and as we increasingly see in 2024, the best playoff teams have versatility. Şengün is Houston’s unquestioned offensive engine. He’s also a middling defender. In a Western Conference sporting star big men in Nikola Jokic, Victor Wembanyama, Anthony Davis, Gobert (plus Karl Anthony-Towns) and Domantas Sabonis, having a defensive stopper at the five could be a prerequisite for playoffs survival.

A potential Clingan addition is certainly enticing. I’ll still tab Sheppard as the most likely selection two weeks before draft day. Measurables for Sheppard—listed at under 6-foot-2—aren’t exactly inspiring, but his production as both a prep player and in his one season at Kentucky is superb. He’s an advanced stats darling, one who sports the best shooting projection of any player since Doug McDermott in 2014, per ESPN’s analytics guru Kevin Pelton.

Both Stone and coach Ime Udoka recently stressed the need to upgrade the team’s shooting, and Houston’s front office has drafted with an analytics bent (Şengün toppped Pelton’s 2021 big board) in recent seasons. Sheppard seems to check both boxes in that regard. We could be set for hundreds of dribble hand-offs between Şengün and Sheppard in the years to come.