The federal government is preparing for scenarios where global oil prices spike above US$120 a barrel, as diesel prices nationwide go past $3 a litre and the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, plans another national cabinet meeting to plan petrol supply.
The treasurer, Jim Chalmers, said one option under consideration was expanding ethanol mandates across the country, after Guardian Australia revealed the government was analysing increasing the biofuel’s supply.
While Labor continues to stress that rationing is not imminent, internal government documents from 2020 show federal emergency powers were envisaged to potentially include limiting fuel purchases to a certain number of litres, bans on filling up jerry cans, and recommendations against “non-essential driving”.
The energy minister, Chris Bowen, said Australia had as much fuel today as it did when the US and Israel launched their war on Iran a month ago, but conceded there were still “real issues in regional Australia in particular, getting the fuel to people where demand has been very, very high.”
He revealed 757m litres from Australia’s strategic fuel reserve had been released – 545m litres of diesel and 212m litres of petrol – after the reserve was tapped two weeks ago, up from 519m litres last week.
The extra supply is being directed to regional Australia, as per the requirements of the changes to the minimum stock obligation; Bowen’s office said one company had increased their allocation to regional distributors by up to 150%.
The minister also said that six shipments of refined oil, which he revealed this week had been cancelled, had now been replaced with future orders, with an additional two extra shipments also secured. Those eight shipments will arrive in coming weeks.
Chalmers said the treasury department had commenced modelling on the effects of oil prices continuing to skyrocket. Oil currently sits around US$89 a barrel.
“We asked the Treasury to model a couple of scenarios which look pretty conservative now. One scenario was global oil at 100 bucks a barrel for a shorter period, another one 120 bucks a barrel for a longer period, and we’ve asked for some more challenging circumstances to be modelled,” Chalmers told a press conference.
“The end of this war can’t come soon enough for the economy. And all of the scenarios that we work through hinge in one way or another on those two things, when it ends and how long the lasting damage lasts.”
The average price of diesel on Wednesday passed $3 for the first time in every capital city besides Darwin, according to the fuel monitoring website, Motormouth. Canberra had the highest average diesel price at $3.10 a litre, with Sydney at $3.07 and Melbourne at $3.04.
Bowen and Chalmers confirmed increasing ethanol concentration in existing fuel supplies was among considerations; the energy minister said he was “looking at” suggestions to increase supply, while the treasurer said the government was considering whether new mandates could be implemented.
Documents obtained under freedom of information legislation, by former senator Rex Patrick and shared with Guardian Australia, show potential options the government could consider in a rationing situation if emergency powers were activated – which Bowen has said is a remote possibility.
An energy department document from 2020, titled National Liquid Fuel Emergency Response Plan, outlines potential options which could include imposing a limit on the amount of fuel someone could buy at one time.
Other ideas envisaged, listed in an example of a media release and public statement inside the 2020 plan, included encouraging Australians to reduce their fuel use by working from home, reducing “non-essential driving”, and banning the use of jerry cans except cases where a car had broken down.
Essential services not covered by rationing, as per the 2020 document, could include police, fire, ambulance, defence, public transport and taxis.
Bowen said the document – created under the Morrison Coalition government – was “out of date” and suggested other potential measures, such as a $40 cap on daily fuel spending, was not in the government’s thinking.
“Rationing would be the absolute, you know, worst case planning purpose. So, it’s not on the agenda,” he said.
“I’m saying I wouldn’t envisage using that particular power … to do that, you’d have to declare a National Fuel Emergency, which has never been declared before. I’ve already said I don’t envisage doing that.”
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