It’s another elimination weekend in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, and this one could be a bit of a wild card.
The Charlotte Roval, which has been slightly reconfigured from previous seasons, is known for chaotic events since it debuted in 2018. Despite what seems like a clear-cut playoff grid heading into the final week of the Round of 12, anything can happen.
There is also, of course, the race for the win, which will likely feature a number of drivers who aren’t part of the playoffs. With that in mind, here are three drivers to watch — a favorite, contender and dark horse — and one to avoid for Sunday’s Bank of America ROVAL 400.
Favorite: William Byron (+1100, per Draft Kings as of Friday afternoon)
There seems to be no clear favorite on the road courses these days, but if a playoff driver is going to emerge victorious on the Roval, Byron is the best bet. Unlike all of the other title contenders, he is already locked into the Round of Eight, so he won’t have to sacrifice track position for stage points.
Byron has never won at the Roval, but he ran second last season and has led 80 laps in six career starts (on a road course, that’s a lot). He also won on a road course at Circuit of the Americas earlier this season and picked up momentum with top-fives in the past two races. With his +1100 odds only ranking tied for sixth best, Byron is a great pick to win this week.
Contender: Chase Elliott (+1200)
We’ll keep it at Hendrick Motorsports for the next featured driver and go with Elliott, a two-time Charlotte Roval winner (2019 and 2020). He hasn’t won on a road course since 2021, but at least at the Roval, it hasn’t been due to a downturn in performance. (He has led a combined 45 laps in the past two races at the track.) In fact, Elliott has led in every Charlotte Roval race since 2019.
He enters the weekend as the last driver in position to advance in the playoffs, 13 points above Joey Logano. Elliott’s No. 9 team could play it conservatively, but it could also go all-out knowing a winner from behind him in the playoffs might end his season. NASCAR’s most popular driver is great value at +1200.
Dark horse: Chase Briscoe (+4500)
Briscoe will have his back against the wall, a theme for him this season. He was in a must-win situation at Darlington, the final race before the playoffs, and won. He was in a hole after a wreck in the first playoff race in Atlanta and came back with two top-10 finishes to advance to the second round. Now he’s in another virtual must-win position, 32 points behind Elliott for the final transfer spot entering an elimination weekend.
Briscoe has had strong performances on the road courses over the years, and ran sixth at Watkins Glen the last time the Cup Series was on one. He won’t be one of the favorites for the win, but his odds are enticing and the best value in the field. When things get crazy on this track, Briscoe will be ready to pounce.
Avoid: A.J. Allmendinger (+750)
Allmendinger, who won on the Roval a season ago, is unbeatable on this track in the Xfinity Series (wins in all four of his starts). Yet he’s probably not a great pick this weekend, and the reason why is simple: Shane van Gisbergen. The New Zealand native is a better version of Allmendinger, and he drives for the same Kaulig Racing team. So if Allmendinger runs strong, van Gisbergen will probably run even stronger.
“SVG” is listed as the favorite on the odds chart at +350, but it’s worth noting he has never run at the Charlotte Roval and may not be worth that price. Allmendinger seems to stick out as an even bigger sore thumb, though. He’ll likely run inside the top 10 or perhaps even the top five, but he won’t win Sunday.
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