The Philadelphia Phillies have a difficult decision to make this offseason, and Orion Kerkering has suddenly become one of the most intriguing names on their roster.

Not long ago, Kerkering looked like a potential long-term weapon in Philadelphia’s bullpen. His electric stuff and ability to miss bats made him an appealing candidate for high-leverage situations, with the potential to become an important setup man in front of the closer.

Now, after a disastrous second half of the 2026 season, the Phillies must decide whether he deserves another opportunity or whether a change of scenery would benefit everyone involved.

Kerkering’s struggles became so severe that Philadelphia sent him to Triple-A Lehigh Valley in September. He was subsequently left off the roster for the team’s Wild Card Series against the Atlanta Braves, marking a disappointing end to a season that began with considerably more promise.

The question facing president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is straightforward: Should the Phillies continue investing in Kerkering’s potential, or has the time come to explore other options?

ORION KERKERING’S SECOND-HALF COLLAPSE CHANGED EVERYTHING

Kerkering’s 2026 season illustrates how quickly a reliever’s standing can change.

During the first half, he looked like a dependable option. He entered the All-Star break with a 2.43 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP, numbers that suggested he could remain an important part of Philadelphia’s bullpen.

The second half was a completely different story.

After the break, Kerkering’s ERA climbed to 9.43, while his WHIP increased to 1.95. His struggles became particularly alarming in September, when he recorded an 18.68 ERA across four appearances, according to The Philadelphia Inquirer.

Those numbers help explain why the Phillies eventually lost confidence in using him during meaningful games.

Relievers are often judged on short stretches because they typically work only a handful of innings at a time. A few poor outings can distort a season’s statistics, but Kerkering’s extended struggles made it increasingly difficult for the coaching staff to justify giving him important assignments.

Philadelphia could no longer afford to wait for him to rediscover his command while competing for a postseason position.

His demotion was therefore more than a temporary roster adjustment. It was a clear indication that he needed to make significant improvements before regaining the organization’s trust.

THE WALK PROBLEM HAS BECOME A MAJOR CONCERN

One of the most troubling aspects of Kerkering’s decline has been his difficulty throwing strikes consistently.

According to Phillies Nation, Kerkering recorded a career-high 12.7% walk rate in 2026. His inability to consistently locate pitches contributed to a season in which opposing hitters increasingly found opportunities to reach base.

For a bullpen pitcher, walks can be particularly damaging.

A starter may have several innings to recover from a difficult stretch. A reliever entering a close game often has little room for error. One walk can put the tying run on base, while a second can force the pitcher to work against a dangerous hitter with multiple runners aboard.

The problem becomes even more serious when a pitcher is struggling to command his best pitches.

Kerkering’s sweeper was once an important weapon, but its effectiveness declined during the second half. Opponents hit .429 against the pitch in September, according to The Philadelphia Inquirer.

When a reliever cannot consistently locate his fastball or rely on his breaking pitch to finish hitters, the margin for error shrinks dramatically.

The Phillies must determine whether Kerkering can correct these problems through mechanical adjustments, improved pitch selection and more consistent execution.

If the organization believes those issues are fixable, keeping him makes sense. If it believes the problems are becoming a persistent pattern, the front office may need to consider a different approach.

PHILADELPHIA HAS ALREADY SHOWN IT CANNOT TRUST HIM IN EVERY SITUATION

Kerkering’s September demotion was particularly significant because it came during the Phillies’ push toward the postseason.

Philadelphia needed reliable outs, but his performances had become increasingly difficult to manage. In one particularly damaging outing against the New York Mets, he allowed four runs while recording just two outs, further intensifying concerns about his ability to handle high-pressure situations.

Interim manager Don Mattingly acknowledged the problem publicly.

The Phillies had reached a point where finding suitable opportunities to use Kerkering had become difficult. When a team is fighting for a playoff position, a manager cannot keep sending a struggling reliever into close games simply because of his potential.

That reality also raises questions about Kerkering’s role moving forward.

Even if he remains with Philadelphia in 2027, he should not automatically return to the same responsibilities he held before his struggles began.

The team may need to rebuild his confidence in lower-pressure situations before considering him for late-inning assignments again.

Such a strategy would give Kerkering a chance to recover without placing the entire bullpen at risk whenever he takes the mound.

WHY TRADING KERKERING COULD BE A MISTAKE

Despite the disappointing season, there is a strong argument for keeping Kerkering.

First, he is still relatively young. At 25, he has time to improve his command and regain the effectiveness that made him an important part of Philadelphia’s pitching plans.

Second, the Phillies have already invested considerable development time in him. They selected Kerkering in the fifth round of the 2022 MLB Draft, and his rapid rise through the minor leagues demonstrated the potential that attracted the organization to him in the first place.

Giving up on that investment after a difficult season could prove costly.

Relief pitchers are especially volatile. Some experience dramatic declines before making adjustments that allow them to become effective again. A difficult season does not necessarily mean a pitcher’s best days are behind him.

Kerkering also remains under Philadelphia’s contractual control for several seasons, giving the organization additional time to evaluate his development rather than making an immediate decision based solely on his 2026 performance.

That control gives the Phillies flexibility.

They could send him to Triple-A, work on his mechanics and pitch execution, and allow him to earn another opportunity when he demonstrates greater consistency.

Trading him now could mean selling low on a pitcher whose value has fallen considerably after a difficult season.

If Kerkering returns to form elsewhere, Philadelphia could be left wondering whether it moved on too quickly.

WHY A CHANGE OF SCENERY IS STILL WORTH CONSIDERING

There is, however, another side to the debate.

Kerkering’s recent difficulties have extended beyond a few isolated bad appearances. His declining results, command problems and reduced standing within the bullpen have created legitimate concerns about whether Philadelphia is the best environment for his next stage of development.

His postseason history has also been difficult.

Kerkering struggled during the 2023 National League Championship Series against Arizona, was involved in Philadelphia’s 2024 postseason bullpen problems and made the throwing error that ended the Phillies’ 2025 NL Division Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Those moments have added to the scrutiny surrounding his performances.

It would be unfair to define a young pitcher entirely by a handful of difficult postseason moments. Nevertheless, Philadelphia’s recent experiences make it understandable that the organization wants greater reliability in high-pressure situations.

A trade could offer Kerkering a fresh start with a different pitching staff and a new set of expectations.

The Phillies might also be able to use him as part of a larger transaction to address another roster need.

However, the front office must be realistic about his current trade value. After his 2026 struggles, Philadelphia should not expect to receive an overwhelming return.

Trading him simply to remove an uncomfortable situation from the roster would be poor asset management.

Any deal should make sense for the organization’s long-term plans.

DAVE DOMBROWSKI MUST BALANCE POTENTIAL WITH IMMEDIATE RESULTS

The Kerkering debate is part of a larger challenge facing Dombrowski this offseason.

Philadelphia needs a bullpen that can consistently bridge the gap between its starting rotation and closer Jhoan Duran. The team cannot expect to contend successfully if the middle innings remain unpredictable.

At the same time, the Phillies should avoid dismantling their pitching depth because of one disappointing season.

The right approach requires evaluating every reliever individually.

Which pitchers can handle high-leverage assignments? Which need more time to develop? Which veterans are worth retaining? And which players could become trade assets?

Kerkering belongs in the second category until he demonstrates that he can consistently execute his pitches again.

The organization should also examine whether his struggles resulted from mechanical issues, declining pitch effectiveness, confidence problems or a combination of factors.

Those distinctions matter because the solutions are different.

If the problem is primarily mechanical, targeted coaching could help him recover. If hitters have adjusted to his repertoire, he may need to develop new ways to attack them.

The Phillies should make that assessment before deciding whether to trade a young pitcher who still has years of club control remaining.

WHAT ROLE COULD KERKERING HAVE IN 2027?

If Philadelphia retains Kerkering, his path back to the major-league bullpen should depend on performance rather than reputation.

He could begin the season in Triple-A if his command remains inconsistent during spring training. That would give him additional opportunities to refine his delivery, improve his strike percentage and restore confidence in his sweeper.

A successful return would not necessarily require him to become a setup man immediately.

Instead, the Phillies could gradually increase his responsibilities as he demonstrates greater consistency.

Shorter appearances against lower portions of opposing lineups might provide a useful starting point. Over time, stronger performances could earn him opportunities in more demanding situations.

The organization should also establish clear performance benchmarks.

Reducing walks, improving his ability to finish hitters and demonstrating that his breaking pitches can consistently generate weak contact would all be meaningful signs of progress.

If Kerkering cannot make those improvements, Philadelphia would have stronger grounds to consider a trade or another roster decision.

The important point is that he should have a pathway back, but that pathway should not be guaranteed.

FINAL VERDICT: THE PHILLIES SHOULD KEEP KERKERING — FOR NOW

The Phillies should lean toward keeping Orion Kerkering rather than trading him this offseason.

That recommendation is not an endorsement of his 2026 performance. His second-half collapse was serious, and Philadelphia was justified in removing him from its major-league bullpen when the team could no longer trust him in important situations.

However, there is a difference between recognizing that a pitcher has struggled and deciding that his future with the organization is over.

Kerkering remains young, has the raw tools that originally made him an appealing prospect and still has years of club control. Those factors give the Phillies a reason to invest in his development rather than accept a potentially disappointing trade return.

The organization should explore the trade market, but it should not feel compelled to move him.

If another team offers meaningful value in a deal that addresses a more pressing need, Philadelphia should listen. Otherwise, keeping Kerkering and giving him an opportunity to rebuild his effectiveness is the more sensible option.

The Phillies need a stronger bullpen in 2027, and Kerkering cannot be allowed to become another recurring source of uncertainty.

But he also should not be discarded simply because his latest season ended badly.

For now, the right decision is to stay. Kerkering must prove that he deserves another chance, and the Phillies must determine whether they can help him become the reliable reliever they once expected him to be.